Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Mean Reversion

I can't help looking at the polling averages and thinking that the race shows a tremendous amount of mean-reversion.  Throughout the race, with the exception of the time between "47%" and Denver, It has been a roughly a 2 point race with Nate Silver giving it a 25/75 odds ratio on the "nowcast."

Also, one might ask why I only look at Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.  The answer is simple: I chose him ex-ante as my poll aggregator based on the strengths of his methods and track record, and to consider other aggregators would simply be aggregating the aggregates, and add zero new data.  What it would do, is let me try to pick and choose between different judgment calls and choose the one I like, which is serious methodological malpractice.

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